Impactos das mudanças na cobertura vegetal e uso da terra na reciclagem de precipitção na bacia Amazônica: um estudo de modelagem numérica

Abstract

The regional model ETA for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies Center(CPTEC/INPE) was used to assess the impacts of changes in vegetal cover and land use(deforestation) in the components of the water balance and precipitation recycling in the Amazon.In general, the spatial and seasonal distribution of the components of the water balance and recycling of precipitation over the continent was well represented by ETA model in wet and dry seasons. However, the model underestimated precipitation in much of the country during the wet season, especially in the central-eastern portion of the Amazon and Northeast regions of Brazil, and overestimated in the extreme northwest of the continent and over the Andes Mountains. Regarding the impacts of changes in land use in the Amazon in air temperature, the water balance components and recycling of rainfall, there was no significant change to the base year of the deforestation of 2010. However, the most significant changes occurred in deforestation scenarios 2050 and 2100. On average, the air temperature increased by 1,5°C, 3,0°C and 4.5 °C for scenarios in 2010, 2050 and 2100. Precipitation suffered up to 13% reductions for the scene in 2050 and 35% in 2100. The evapotranspiration and moisture convergence had impacts of -13.3% and + 7% respectively for the scene in 2050, and still -36.7% and + 14% for scenario 2100, respectively. In both cases it predominated the negative feedback mechanism in which the relative decrease in evaporation on average was greater than the reduction in precipitation (increase in moisture convergence), which represents a best case scenario compared with a positive mechanism for the negative feedback mechanism plays a role in restoring the degradation generated in vegetation cover to anthropogenic degradation is eliminated. Regarding the recycling of precipitation, 9% reductions were observed and 29% respectively for scenarios in 2050 and 2100. In the wet season the recycling was reduced from 7.8% and 22%, respectively; and in the dry season the reductions were 12% and 33% for the same scenarios, showing that the greatest impacts on rainfall recycling occurred in the dry season of the basin. The intense decrease in rainfall recycling in the dry season is a troubling result because the changes in locally produced precipitation rate may be associated with a longer dry period.