Evolução de nichos e os efeitos de mudanças climáticas na distribuição e padrões de e diversidade de serpentes Crotalinae (Bothrops e Bothrocophias, Squamata, Viperidae)

Abstract

Niche evolution and the effects of climate change on the distribution and diversity pattern of Bothropides snakes (Bothrops e Bothrocophias, Squamata, Viperidae) From the conception of the niche theory it was possible to clearly observe different patterns at different scales within populations and communities, the maxim predicts that the ability of lineages to retain ancestral ecological characteristics directed through time may be fundamental to observe processes, this is the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism. It is important to evaluate how the niche changes through time and space to understand the mechanisms that acted in the processes of speciation of the lineages, for it is necessary to estimate the ancestral preferences from the current clades and to observe potential displacements and effects in evolutionary processes are necessary integrative approaches (e.g ecological niche models, dated phylogenies). These observations are important for assuming the effects of future climate changes on species. In this study we used a group composed of two genera (Bothrops and Bothrocophias) of the family Viperidae, in addition to being a group of medical importance due to high accident rates, are low dispersion at large scales, are widely distributed in the neotropical region, the objective of the study is to investigate if there is evolution in the niche occupation of snakes of the family Viperidae (Bothrops and Bothrocophias), and its role in the diversification and effects on the richness of the species in future scenarios of climatic changes. We used ecological niche models for 26 species of the Bothrops and Bothrocophias group, based on the values of suitability and the predictive variables, were estimated the ecological preferences for each species and projected for the ancestral nodes through calculations of maximum similarity, we also used the calculation of Disparity over time in each variable. Ecological niche models were used for future projections with various scenarios of climate change. With the results of disparity, we can observe the importance of ecological factors in speciation, especially in the most recent evolutionary history of Bothrops and Bothrocophias, that is, there is a phylogenetic divergence in the most recent periods in relation to the niche, this trend may be favoring the dispersal across geographic space and favors their distribution in scenarios of climate change.