Estudo da Variabilidade e Mudanças Climáticas na Região de Manaus

Abstract

The objective of this work is to compute and to analyze the tendencies of the climate change detection indices, derived from the daily precipitation, defined by WMO, for the city of Manaus, and to correlate them with the SST anomalies in the areas of Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Nino 3.4, TNA and TSA. Daily precipitation data from 3 stations: Reserva Ducke, EMBRAPA and INMET were used in this study. The results show an increase in the intensity of precipitation (SDII) in this region. A significant increasing trend at the INMET station for indices R50mm and R95p was found. Embrapa and Ducke stations showed positive trend in R10mm R20mm. A strong link is found between ENSO and the dry or rainy weather for the city. The consecutive dry days (DCS) at Manaus showed significant correlation with the conditions of the Tropical South Atlantic, as well as in the Niño regions 1+2, Niño 3 and Niño 3.4. However, indices that represent heavy rains showed statistically significant correlations only with the Niño regions 1+2 and 3 in the Pacific. Heavy rains at Manaus did not show significant correlation with the North and South Tropical Atlantic indices.