Forest fire risk indices and zoning of hazardous areas in Sorocaba, São Paulo state, Brazil

Abstract

This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semi-deciduous forest fragments, creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator (KDE) in the municipality of Sorocaba, São Paulo state, Brazil. The logarithmic Telicyn index, Monte Alegre formula (MAF) and enhanced Monte Alegre formula (MAF+) were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016. Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Institute for Space Research (INPE), respectively. Two performance measures were calculated: Heidke skill score (SS) and success rate (SR). The MAF+ index was the most accurate, with values of SS and SR of 0.611% and 62.8%, respectively. The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high (63 km2) and very high (47 km2) risk of fires in the municipality. Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires. © 2019, Northeast Forestry University.