Stochastic modeling in human carrying-capacity estimation: A tool for development planning in Amazonia

Abstract

The assumptions associated with carrying-capacity estimates have been a major limitation on attempts to make meaningful estimates. Carrying capacity provides an ideal framework for examining and organizing development goals. The focus of carrying-capacity estimation on sustainability is highly appropriate, and unfortunately often lacking, in development considerations. Consequences of ignoring carrying capacity in planning can be expected to be severe in terms of the suffering and the sacrifice of other goals, such as areas designated for preservation of natural habitats, Amerindian tribes, and so forth. The purpose of a carrying-capacity estimate is to be the primary factor shaping the approach used in estimating and selecting component parts to be included in a development study. A stochastic simulation model, KPROG2, has been written for estimating carrying capacity in a part of Brazil’s Transamazon Highway colonization area. The KPROG2 program represents a starting point for many possible improvements in the theoretical basis of carrying-capacity estimation. © 1983 Taylor & Francis.