Alocação do uso da terra dos colonos da Rodovia Transamazônica e sua relação com a capacidade do suporte humano

Abstract

The present paper discusses the resource allocation behavior of the colonists in a part of Brazil's Transamazon Highway Colonization area, and outlines the procedures used to model this behavior as a part of a computer simulation designed for producing estimates of human carrying capacity. The study applies to an area of 236 of the 100 ha colonist lots centered on Agrovila Grande Esperança, 50 km west of the town of Altamira, Pará. The allocations made by actual colonists, and the decision processes used to arrive at these allocations, are exceedingly complex. For the purposes of reproducing these allocations as faithfully as possible in a computer simulation, the decisions can be divided between subsistence and cash crop allocations. Colonists' strategies for cash crop allocation can be classified into four land use patterns: annual cash crops, perennial cash crops, cattle ranching, and outside labor. These patterns are strongly related to colonist backgrounds. Changes in the colonist population through turnover result in changed cash cropping allocations through time. Colonists with rural backgrounds and no previous ownership or management experience, known as laborer farmers, make smaller allocations than do mixed populations which include other colonist types. Differences in failure probabilities between types are inconclusive, but are extremely high in all cases. From the point of view of recommending modifications in the planning of colonization projects, the interpretation of information on land use allocation, failure probabilities, and carrying capacity is entirely dependent on a clear formulation of the objectives of any given project. Conflicting objectives, as in the case of the Transamazon Highway Colonization Project, can lead to different conclusions on such important questions as the type of selection criteria which should be used in screening prospective colonists.", 'en