Use este identificador para citar ou linkar para este item: https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/14719
Título: Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia
Autor: Padilla-Torres, Samael D.
Ferraz, Gonçalo
Luz, Sérgio Luíz Bessa
Zamora-Perea, Elvira
Abad-Franch, Fernando
Palavras-chave: Virus Rna
Aedes Aegypti
Aedes Albopictus
Breeding
Dengue
Disease Carrier
Disease Transmission
Egg Laying
Geographic Distribution
Health Survey
Human
Infestation
Molecular Dynamics
Nonhuman
Public Health Problem
Seasonal Variation
Urban Area
Vector Control
Aedes
Animals
City
Dengue
Dengue Virus
Ecology
Environment
Female
Geography
Insect Control
Male
Population Dynamics
Procedures
Reproduction
Season
Statistical Model
Temperature
Transmission
Virology
Aedes
Animalss
Cities
Dengue
Dengue Virus
Ecology
Environment
Female
Geography
Insect Control
Insect Vectors
Likelihood Functions
Male
Population Dynamics
Reproduction
Seasons
Temperature
Data do documento: 2013
Revista: PLoS ONE
É parte de: Volume 8, Número 3
Abstract: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of dengue, the most important arboviral disease of humans. To date, Aedes ecology studies have assumed that the vectors are truly absent from sites where they are not detected; since no perfect detection method exists, this assumption is questionable. Imperfect detection may bias estimates of key vector surveillance/control parameters, including site-occupancy (infestation) rates and control intervention effects. We used a modeling approach that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and a 38-month, 55-site detection/non-detection dataset to quantify the effects of municipality/state control interventions on Aedes site-occupancy dynamics, considering meteorological and dwelling-level covariates. Ae. aegypti site-occupancy estimates (mean 0.91; range 0.79-0.97) were much higher than reported by routine surveillance based on 'rapid larval surveys' (0.03; 0.02-0.11) and moderately higher than directly ascertained with oviposition traps (0.68; 0.50-0.91). Regular control campaigns based on breeding-site elimination had no measurable effects on the probabilities of dwelling infestation by dengue vectors. Site-occupancy fluctuated seasonally, mainly due to the negative effects of high maximum (Ae. aegypti) and minimum (Ae. albopictus) summer temperatures (June-September). Rainfall and dwelling-level covariates were poor predictors of occupancy. The marked contrast between our estimates of adult vector presence and the results from 'rapid larval surveys' suggests, together with the lack of effect of local control campaigns on infestation, that many Aedes breeding sites were overlooked by vector control agents in our study setting. Better sampling strategies are urgently needed, particularly for the reliable assessment of infestation rates in the context of control program management. The approach we present here, combining oviposition traps and site-occupancy models, could greatly contribute to that crucial aim. © 2013 Padilla-Torres et al.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0058420
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