Modeling of survival, mortality and recruitment of a forest in Central Amazon

Abstract

The objective of this research was to test and to select models for description of survival, ingrowth and mortality of all species and for group of pioneer species present in a tropical rainforest in center of the Amazon. The study area is located in the Tropical Forest Experiment Station, 90 km far from the urban center of Manaus - AM, Brazil. The data came from 12 permanent 1 ha plots with annual measurements of all individuals with a DBH equal or greater than 10 cm, between years 1990 and 2008. Probabilistic and biological growth functions adapted for modeling cumulative recruitment and mortality were used, as well as current survival per unit of area for all species; and for pioneer species of the forest. The statistical criteria of fitting the Schlaegel Index, standard error of estimate and graphical analysis of residuals, indicate that: i) the pdf of the Weibull model as being the most appropriate function for modeling the cumulative recruitment of the group of pioneers and the total of species; ii) Sloboda and Weibull models in modeling the cumulative mortality of the group of pioneers and the total of species; iii) Logistic and Levakovik I functions to model the survival of the group of pioneers and the total of species per hectare.