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Title: Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon basin
Authors: Sorribas, Mino Viana
Paiva, Rodrigo C.D.
Melack, John M.
Bravo, Juan Martin
Jones, Charles
Carvalho, Leila M.V.
Beighley, Edward
Forsberg, Bruce Rider
Costa, Marcos Heil
Keywords: Climate Models
Water Resources
Biogeochemical Process
Climate Projection
Flood Vulnerabilities
Future Projections
Hydro-power Generation
Hydrologic Regime
Regional Hydrological Model
River Hydraulics
Climate Change
Biogeochemical Cycle
Climate Change
Hydroelectric Power
Hydrological Modeling
Hydrological Regime
Low Flow
Nutrient Cycling
River Discharge
Amazon Basin
Issue Date: 2016
metadata.dc.publisher.journal: Climatic Change
metadata.dc.relation.ispartof: Volume 136, Número 3-4, Pags. 555-570
Abstract: Climate change and its effects on the hydrologic regime of the Amazon basin can impact biogeochemical processes, transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined projections of climate change on discharge and inundation extent in the Amazon basin using the regional hydrological model MGB-IPH with 1-dimensional river hydraulic and water storage simulation in floodplains. Future projections (2070–2099) were obtained from five GCMs from IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5. Climate projections have uncertainty and results from different climate models did not agree in total Amazon flooded area or discharge anomalies along the main stem river. Overall, model runs agree better with wetter (drier) conditions over western (eastern) Amazon. Results indicate that increased mean and maximum river discharge for large rivers draining the Andes in the northwest contributes to increased mean and maximum discharge and inundation extent over Peruvian floodplains and Solimões River (annual mean-max: +9 % - +18.3 %) in western Amazonia. Decreased river discharges (mostly dry season) are projected for eastern basins, and decreased inundation extent at low water (annual min) in the central (−15.9 %) and lower Amazon (−4.4 %). © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1640-2
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