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Título: | Predicting land cover changes in the Amazon rainforest: An ocean-atmosphere-biosphere problem |
Autor: | Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos Malhado, Ana Cláudia Mendes Costa, Marcos Heil |
Palavras-chave: | Biospherics Climate Change Vegetation Amazon Rainforest Biophysical Factors Land Use Policy Land-cover Change Numerical Experiments Regional Pattern Sea Surface Temperature (sst) Vegetation Structure Vegetation Type Climate Models Atmosphere-biosphere Interaction Atmosphere-hydrosphere Interaction Climate Change Evergreen Forest Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Land Cover Land Use Planning Numerical Model Rainforest Regional Pattern Savanna Sea Surface Temperature Tropical Forest Vegetation Structure Amazonia |
Data do documento: | 2012 |
Revista: | Geophysical Research Letters |
É parte de: | Volume 39, Número 9 |
Abstract: | Accurate studies of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for developing effective conservation and land use policy. Such studies require the development of models that accurately represent the complex and interacting biophysical factors that influence regional patterns of vegetation. Here we investigate the impacts of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the vegetation of the Amazon, testing the hypothesis that changes in Amazonian vegetation structure are a consequence of an ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interaction. We design a numerical experiment in which we force a coupled climate-biosphere model by 10 SST patterns produced by different IPCC AR4 models, for the A2 scenario for the period 2000-2050. Simulations for 2011-2050 show that certain patterns of SST are likely to decrease the ensemble for tropical evergreen rainforest and savanna, and that these areas will be occupied mainly by tropical deciduous rainforest, emitting an average of 0.53 Pg-C.yr-1 during the transition. © Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union. |
DOI: | 10.1029/2012GL051556 |
Aparece nas coleções: | Artigos |
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