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Title: Predicting land cover changes in the Amazon rainforest: An ocean-atmosphere-biosphere problem
Authors: Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos
Malhado, Ana Cláudia Mendes
Costa, Marcos Heil
Keywords: Biospherics
Climate Change
Amazon Rainforest
Biophysical Factors
Land Use Policy
Land-cover Change
Numerical Experiments
Regional Pattern
Sea Surface Temperature (sst)
Vegetation Structure
Vegetation Type
Climate Models
Atmosphere-biosphere Interaction
Atmosphere-hydrosphere Interaction
Climate Change
Evergreen Forest
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
Land Cover
Land Use Planning
Numerical Model
Regional Pattern
Sea Surface Temperature
Tropical Forest
Vegetation Structure
Issue Date: 2012
metadata.dc.publisher.journal: Geophysical Research Letters
metadata.dc.relation.ispartof: Volume 39, Número 9
Abstract: Accurate studies of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for developing effective conservation and land use policy. Such studies require the development of models that accurately represent the complex and interacting biophysical factors that influence regional patterns of vegetation. Here we investigate the impacts of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the vegetation of the Amazon, testing the hypothesis that changes in Amazonian vegetation structure are a consequence of an ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interaction. We design a numerical experiment in which we force a coupled climate-biosphere model by 10 SST patterns produced by different IPCC AR4 models, for the A2 scenario for the period 2000-2050. Simulations for 2011-2050 show that certain patterns of SST are likely to decrease the ensemble for tropical evergreen rainforest and savanna, and that these areas will be occupied mainly by tropical deciduous rainforest, emitting an average of 0.53 Pg-C.yr-1 during the transition. © Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: 10.1029/2012GL051556
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