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Title: Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices
Authors: Schöngart, Jochen
Junk, Wolfgang Johannes
Keywords: Discharge (fluid Mechanics)
Mathematical Models
Sea Surface Temperature (sst)
Southern Oscillation Index (soi)
Water Level
Discharge (fluid Mechanics)
Mathematical Models
El Nino-southern Oscillation
Forecasting Method
River Discharge
Sea Surface Temperature
Southern Oscillation
Water Level
Amazon River
South America
Issue Date: 2007
metadata.dc.publisher.journal: Journal of Hydrology
metadata.dc.relation.ispartof: Volume 335, Número 1-2, Pags. 124-132
Abstract: The flood-pulse of the large rivers in Central Amazonia triggers ecological processes of the floodplain systems inducing a severe seasonality in the annual cycle between the aquatic and the terrestrial phase. The nutrient-rich floodplains (várzea) have the highest human population density in Amazonia and economic activities such as fishing, agriculture, pasture and timber extraction are directly associated with water-level fluctuations. The discharge of many tropical river systems responds to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originating from the tropical Pacific. Several studies show a strong relationship between the flooding regime of Amazonian rivers and ENSO-indices, such as the meteorological Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During warm ENSO-phases (El Niño) flood-levels are lowered and aquatic phases are shortened, while high and prolonged flooding is associated to cold ENSO-phases (La Niña). Here we present retrospective forecasts of the maximum water level in Central Amazonia from 1903 to 2004 - generally occurring in the second half of June - and the length of the aquatic phase along the flood-gradient by models based on the SOI and SST anomalies of the El Niño 3.4 region in February, four months before its appearance. The forecast of the flood-pulse allows also predicting parameters correlated with the flood-pulse (e.g., tree growth, biogeochemical cycles) and increases the efficiency in planning and executing of economic activities by the human population (e.g., fishery, timber extraction, agriculture). © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.11.005
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