Deforestation actors: patterns and simulation of deforestation on a cattle ranching frontier in the State of Amazonas

Abstract

The recent increase in forest cover loss in Brazil’s Amazon region has been causing substantial concern at the global level. By understanding the deforestation process in the past and in the present, we can better model the advance of deforestation. Here, we assessed the contributions of different types of actors to deforestation and land occupation in Santo Antônio do Matupi District located in the southern portion of Amazonas State, and we simulated the deforestation patterns of actors inside and outside of the Matupi settlement project through 2050. In the Matupi settlement, we assessed the actors with a focus on land-tenure concentration (i.e., lot concentration), and outside of settlement we assessed the actors based on the Rural Environmental Register or CAR (Cadastro Ambiental Rural). We also assessed deforestation in public land without destination, in an agro-extractivist settlement and in protected areas. Based on the information from this analysis, we created a map with all actors’ landholdings and obtained parameters for the deforestation patch sizes for use as input data in a spatially explicit model to simulate the deforestation trajectory of each type of actor, using as an assumption the recent increasing trend in deforestation rates (2013-2018) and the weakening of command and control action. Two scenarios were constructed based on the same assumption, but with different approach to deforestation rates: (i) Business-as-usual scenario with absolute rates (BAU-SAR), where we used deforestation rates in terms of area cleared at each model time step and (ii) Business-as-usual scenario with relative rates (BAU-SRR), where we applied rates in terms of a percentage in relation to the remaining forest area in the landholdings and land categories. The results showed that, in the Matupi settlement, lot “concentrators” occupied 28% (9653 ha) of the settlement and 29% of the lots (152 lots); the numbers of lots concentrated ranged from two to ten; concentrators of two lots and non-concentrators were the predominant actors. Outside of the settlement, we found the following actor types: “small” (< 100 ha), “semi-small” (100 - 400 ha), “medium” (> 400 - 1500 ha) and “large” (> 1500 ha). Most of the total area in small (72%) and semi-small (49%) landholdings had been cleared by 2018, while the medium and large landholdings still had large areas of remaining forest. Only a small portion of the area occupied by these actors had been cleared (medium: 20%; large: 12%). Statistical analysis showed that the main predictors of deforestation were: landholding size, year of first clearing and the distance between the landholding and the Transamazon Highway (adj R2 = 0.507). Most actors of all types were found in public land without destination, although some actors were also found in the agro-extractivist settlement (medium: 8%; large: 28%) and in conservation units (medium: 21%; large: 21%). Deforestation modeling indicated a substantial increase in clearing through 2050 in both scenarios, mainly in the Matupi settlement, in areas occupied outside of the settlement by small and semi-small landholdings and in public land without destination. In the BAU-SRR deforestation increased more gradually in than in the BAU-SAR. We verified that more than 50% of the forest in the lots of a family that concentrated 10 lots in the Matupi settlement, medium landholdings, and large landholdings and in protected areas remained by 2050. This study provides a better understanding of the actors on an Amazonian cattle-ranching frontier and of the spatial and temporal dynamics of their deforestation.